US ECONOMY (July 14th 2012): CONSUMER SENTIMENT - How We Use Michigan Data, What Did Yesterday's Number Mean?

US Consumer Confidence was released yesterday, declining from 73.2 to 72, the weakest level since December.

But why is this a useful indicator for the global economy? How can you use it as an investor to pick out LONG TERM market tops/bottoms or MEDIUM TERM trends and cycles? And what does this latest reading imply about the US and Global Economy?

There are two main Consumer Confidence indicators, one by the Conference Board and the other by the University of Michigan. We've been fairly quiet about these indicators in our analysis since we began the site, because both indicators have been issuing mixed signals for months. In this article we'll shine some light onto how we use the UoM indicator in our MEDIUM TERM and LONG TERM categories of analysis, and how we interpret yesterday's headline figure.

Note: If you're new to Big Macro Picture, check out how we look at the markets on different timeframes (LONG, MEDIUM and SHORT) to identify the different trends  that form our Big Macro Picture. Our review of leading economic data tends to help us get a lead on the month-to-month cycles of the market in the MEDIUM TERM category.

THE TREND IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

As you can see from the chart, Consumer Confidence can be quite volatile and is prone to revisions. When the reading drops dramatically and is far lower than expected (September 2005, July 2011 as two examples), it can reflect economic uncertainty that the market has yet to price in. Conversely, at the bottom of a bearish MEDIUM TERM or LONG TERM cycle, it's not uncommon for the indicator to flatten out and improve. Significant divergence from the market can provide us with useful signals - in May 2009 and November 2011 for instance, UoM Confidence could have been used to confirm that market recoveries were supported by improving economic sentiment.

Consumer Confidence isn't the most accurate leading indicator, and is susceptible to following the market's lead, which is probably to be expected. However, when Confidence peaks and then breaks down, economic weakness may be more serious than the market expects.

Bulls, as you'd expect, will want to see Confidence trending upwards having troughed. Bears meanwhile will want to see this indicator having peaked, and generally declining.

 

ABSOLUTE LEVELS IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

While trends are important in leading indicators, in the LONG TERM, there is also a contrarian factor to consider with Consumer Confidence. Analysts should not be put off making bearish or bullish calls when the absolute level of Consumer Confidence is high - as this will often reflect high or low equity valuations.

We wouldn't hold off being bullish, for instance, if UoM Confidence was in the 50s, so long as other leading indicators were particularly bullish - in fact, low Consumer Confidence along with bullish leading indicators will provide us with a more compelling reason to enter long positions.

Meanwhile UoM readings in the 70s coupled with poor leading indicators, might give us more reasons to enter short positions - confidence has a longer way to fall, meaning equity prices could have more room to decline.

YESTERDAY'S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READING

While prone to being revised, yesterday's reading held up far better than last year's July release - which was one of the more compelling arguments to fuel equity market weakness last summer.

While 72 is far from a terrible reading, it is a lower low in the current trend, which appears to have peaked in May for the time being. The Absolute level, at 72, implies that there is certainly enough room for confidence to come down over the summer - readings in the 50s would seem more bearish, but would almost certainly be reflected in oversold market conditions.

On a whole, we believe this indicator is currently a tick in the box of our MEDIUM TERM bearish argument, although far from being too compelling yet. We'll be watching out for any big unexpected slips, or any reversal of the downwards trend from May onwards.

This leaves us with only a handful of MEDIUM TERM indicators giving us hope of favourable economic conditions going into the difficult late-summer period. The Regional Manufacturing Surveys, the PMI data for Europe, China and the United States, the relatively weak Unemployment data (asides from impressive Claims reports in the last two weeks), and now the downward trending Consumer Confidence data all seem to confirm the weaker conditions than earlier this year.

We eagerly await more data to either confirm or dispel these concerns going forward.

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US ECONOMY (July 12th 2012): Today's Weekly Jobless Claims Preview

Today sees the release of the US Weekly Jobless Claims. After bitterly disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls last week, and the first sub-50 reading for ISM Manufacturing, the spotlight is firmly fixed on the US economy -- and Weekly Claims has been a very useful indicator so far this year.

Interestingly, despite the repeated disappointments in the Payrolls data, Jobless Claims have improved a little in the last two weeks -- although the readings are often prone to heavy revisions, which we'll be looking out for today.

To avoid re-typing how we use Weekly Claims in our MEDIUM TERM and LONG TERM categories of analysis:

In previous articles, we've written on how Weekly Claims are often an interesting indicator for the trend in economic conditions - for the LONG TERM by pulling up a yearly 2000-2012 chart, and even on a month-to-month basis to spot cycles of economic strength or weakness (such as March-present). The chart below (screenshot from ForexFactory) shows this well:

We generally identify MEDIUM TERM trends on a chart such as 2011-present, which shows Weekly Claims troughing between February and March, before increasing into the summer.


Being employment data, the trends are far from smooth, but the advantage is the regularity of the data - making longer term trends easier to identify in real-time. The proof is in the historical usefulness of the data in providing leading indicators for equity market returns. By troughing in February-March and trending higher, it became one of the most persuasive arguments in reducing our bullishness from the previous October-March cycle, and eventually initating a new MEDIUM TERM bearish cycle.


Therefore, even though one week of data isn't too useful to us, it's only natural that we keep a close eye on the indicator - and the revisions in the data from previous weeks.

BULLISH/BEARISH ARGUMENTS 

We are first drawn to the last two readings which were improvements on the week of June 21st (revised up to 392k). This is the main bullish argument that the MEDIUM TERM trend might reverse, backed up by last week's particularly strong 374k headline reading. To be back on track, we really want to see readings back in the 355k region before too long.

From the MEDIUM TERM perspective, bulls should be happy with:

• Any reading below 374k, and preferably lower than 370k, to mark some kind proof that conditions aren't rapidly deteriorating.
• As small a revision to last week's number as possible. A revision back up to 385k+ for last week would leave little room for doubt that this indicator is still bearish on the MEDIUM TERM timeframe.

Bears meanwhile will be happy to see claims from this week, or last week, back in the 380k+ region.

In the longer term picture, as we can see, the trend has been firmly improving since 2009. As you'd expect, the path has been far from smooth - the 2010 and 2011 seasonal slowdowns are reflected clearly in the data. However, unless we start regularly seeing readings in the 420k+ region, and rapidly deteriorate from there, this indicator still lends itself to the overall LONG TERM 2009-present bull cycle - even if that cycle is currently in doubt.

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PRE-MARKET (July 11th 2012): Can We Break the 4 Day Losing Streak?

 

 

PRE-MARKET for US trading on July 11th 2012.

Yesterday saw US indices post their fourth consecutive day of losses -- courtesy of profit warnings from some big industrial names in the States, giving the market more reasons to worry about the growth outlook for 2012.

 

This slow/no growth scenario has been reflected in the leading economic indicators for several months, with the most worrying deterioration coming from Europe and China. These were cited in the profit warnings along with "weak demand". After another disappointing jobs report last week, along with the first sub-50 reading of ISM, we believe there is significant reason to be concerned about the US economy - namely that it is finally starting to feel the effects of the slowdown overseas.

 

Chart courtesy of the excellent StockCharts.com

 

The market on Monday managed to bounce from the support between 12680-12705. Yesterday it wasn't so fortunate however, and we saw continued selling pressure down to 12600 before a brief respite in the last half hour of trading. The area of 12680-12705 now becomes crucial as an area of resistance - which the market will need to close above for any bullish SHORT TERM argument to remain intact. We find ourselves at a pivotal level, where the market should, if genuinely strong, find support at the various levels below (12600, 12500, 12450, 12433).

Our plan for today will be to cautiously avoid being too exposed to short positions if the market holds its key levels. On a longer term timescale however, we might expect a re-test of the 200MA in July. With the FOMC Minutes being released at 7PM (GMT, 2PM on Wall Street), it would be wise to watch out for volatility as traders read between the lines of the Fed's last meeting.

THE DAY AHEAD

As mentioned today sees the release of the FOMC Minutes, and traders will be looking for any hints of further QE from the Fed. At Big Macro Picture, we are focused on economic data rather than speculation on how the Fed might improve that data in the future - however, it's foolish for market participants to just ignore Fed policy. In mid-2010 when QE was resumed, the leading economic data looked poor, and only improved as the year went on. However, the market reacted immediately to the expectation the data would be better - making our kind of analysis difficult in that situation.

 

Our plan, if easing programmes are initiated by the Fed, will be to avoid being significantly net long or short in our portfolios until the economic data reflects any improvement. We take this precaution because there is no guarantee that action by the Fed will improve real economic conditions as it did in 2009 and 2010 -- but at the same time want to avoid serious drawdown on short positions if the market rallies.

 

Asides from the FOMC Minutes, Trade Balance data for the US might cause the futures to move before the open. There is no economic data out today to change our MEDIUM or LONG TERM views, but watch out for volatility around those FOMC Minutes.

HOW YESTERDAY'S DATA AFFECTS OUR MEDIUM TERM VIEW

Note: If you're new to Big Macro Picture, check out how we look at the markets on different timeframes (LONG, MEDIUM and SHORT) to identify the different trends  that form our Big Macro Picture. Our review of leading economic data tends to help us get a lead on the month-to-month cycles of the market in the MEDIUM TERM category.

In terms of data itself yesterday presented no changes to our views. However, two interesting reports we believe are worth reading, reflect some of our bearish MEDIUM TERM views on the market/global economy, and our concerns for the 2009-present bull run. Whether you see them as ammo for the Fed to act, or signs of difficulty ahead in 2012/2013, the reports are interesting reading:




Markit Global Business Outlook Survey


NFIB US Outlook and Trends for Small Businesses

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US ECONOMY (July 6th 2012): Our Problem With Non Fam Payrolls and Unemployment Data

Yesterday saw the release of two important US unemployment statistics - the ADP Jobs Report and the Weekly Unemployment Claims.

USING UNEMPLOYMENT DATA AS INVESTORS

In previous articles, we've written on how Weekly Claims are often an interesting indicator for the trend in economic conditions - for the LONG TERM by pulling up a yearly 2000-2012 chart, and even on a month-to-month basis to spot cycles of economic strength or weakness (such as March-present). The chart below (screenshot from ForexFactory) shows this well:

We haven't written much however, on Non-Farm Payrolls, termed the "biggest economic report of the month" by the financial press and held in high regard by investors and traders. Firstly, we disagree that it is the most important data release of the month - because it is prone to volatile readings and often lags, rather than leads, economic conditions and the market.


The second data release, closely associated with NFPs, is the ADP Jobs Report, designed to give a lead on what NFPs might be. Below are the charts for both ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls, along with the Headline US Unemployment Rate.

First we'll ask how useful each can be as a leading economic indicator, for use by investors, compared to our favoured survey indicators. For brevity we'll use this latest LONG TERM cycle as an example. Would any have aided in presenting March 2009 as a bottom for global equity markets, by troughing in January 2009, as ISM Manufacturing did?

The middle indicator, the headline US Unemployment Rate, visibly holds little value. It failed to recognise the severity of the downturn until far too late in 2008, and then continued throughout 2009. Only by 2010 was it clear that this indicator has stopped getting worse - by which time equity markets had long since bottomed. For this reason, we are very cynical about headline Unemployment Rates when presented to us in the media - what use is this kind of statistic for investors?


So what about ADP and Non Farm Payrolls? Firstly, at a brief glance, you can tell how volatile these indicators can be. Both are prone to revisions and wild swings (the retrospectively revised versions make these indicators look better - the above data you see is what an investor or trader is presented with in real-time). You will remember that ISM provided ample warning of a deteriorating trend from 2007 onwards. Most PMI data troughed between December 08 and March 09, presenting divergence between the market and economy.


Non-Farm Payrolls meanwhile, using this latest cycle purely as an example, continued to decline - giving the lowest reading in April 2009, months after the ISM. The sheer volatility in the data meant that either a lagging moving average is required, or patience to wait for clear signs of a trend, which were only clear by August 2009. That's not to mention the confusion of the revisions in the data - even the April 2009 reading was revised to look worse, by which time the PMI survey data had swiftly and confidently established a new bullish trend.

The same criticisms can be applied to many other cycles over the years. ADP is a very similar indicator, although appears to be more smooth, and with trends that are far easier to identify in real-time. Our main criticism for ADP is its use in identifying MEDIUM TERM month-to-month trends in economic conditions - it did little to help investors in 2011 (although this is slightly harsh, considering it could have helped investors back into the market last October). Non-Farms, while volatile, did give us far more stark signals to indicate the mid/late-2011 slowdown.

While we have some criticisms for both ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls (and pretty much all Employment related indicators), we're far from casting them off entirely. We just don't regard these indicators as highly as the financial media or large investment institutions do.

Clearly then, for our LONG TERM analysis, we want both ADP and Non Farm Payrolls to be increasing in a trend similar to PMI, even if they're not as useful for predicting changing trends. So what do we think about yesterdays ADP and Claims data? And what about today's big Non-Farm Payrolls data?

YESTERDAY'S ADP AND CLAIMS DATA, TODAY'S PAYROLLS

The Weekly Jobless Claims number came in better than expected at 376k. The previous week's data was revised up to 388k, but this is still lower than the 392k for June 21st. 376k is the lowest headline reading since May, and assuming it is not heavily revised upwards, is good news for the US economy after the difficult ISM data on Monday. If Unemployment Claims have peaked, it stands as a rare positive indicator for the global economy's 2012 outlook - and perhaps gives some credence to the market's rally in the last month.




The ADP Jobs Report also came in better than expected. At 176k, it marked two months in a row of improvement, data that flies in the face of other reports released in that time period. The number of jobs added is less than the start of the year, and while we also need to consider seasonal irregularities from the warm winter, the stats also reflect a disappointing change in trend from the positive early-2012 reports.




So what about Non-Farm Payrolls today? The market will be glued to the number, with most traders on Wall Street expecting something between 100-125k. We also note that this report covers 5 weeks of data, giving a natural bias to be better than last month. We have no estimate to offer, but will be watching closely for revisions in last month's data - as well as any signs of shocks in this month's headline figure.


Anything above 120k would be a tick in the box of "bullish for the MEDIUM TERM trend". Anything less than last month's 69k would be remarkably bearish for that trend. Given the volatility in the data, we doubt anything in between will seriously affect our view - this indicator has so far reflected the MEDIUM TERM bearish trend by peaking in March-April. A negative number would class as a serious threat to the LONG TERM 2009-present bull market when complimented by the weak ISM data.


Given that 2009-present "recovery trend" has never been under so much threat from leading economic data, we have good reason to be cautious heading into today's report.

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GLOBAL ECONOMY (July 3rd 2012): What You Need to Know About ISM and Global PMIs

The big economic news on Monday was the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

At Big Macro Picture, we consider this to be the most important global economic indicator of the month - moreso than the Non-Farm Payrolls, which gathers more attention amongst traders and the financial press.

As well as ISM PMI data, Monday also saw the release of 25 other significant economic reports from around the world, courtesy of Markit. We use this data to understand what kind of market cycle we're in, as part of LONG TERM and MEDIUM TERM categories of analysis. Below, we give a very simple summary of the first reports of the day (released before ISM Manufacturing), along with notes we wrote as the reports were released.

HOW DID THIS MONTH'S WORLDWIDE PMI DATA LOOK?

South Korean PMI - 49.4 in June, down from 51.0 in the previous month, citing lower international demand for Korean products.

Dutch PMI - 48.9 in June, up from 47.6 in May, despite European demand weakness and lower New Orders.

Taiwan PMI - posted 49.2 in June, down from 50.5 in the previous month, due to export weakness.

Vietnam PMI - 48.3 in May to 46.6 in June from lower New Orders and caution amongst clients. This is clearly a lagging indicator having only troughed in February from the 2011 slowdown.

Indonesian PMI - registered 50.2 in June, up from 48.1 in May. Similarly not the most accurate indicator for global conditions, but can be added to the "not making lower lows" category.

Russian PMI - declined from 53.2 in May to 51.0. Like the US economy, has broadly refused to be caught up in European slowdown, but did enjoy a high oil price in early 2012.

Indian PMI - posted 55.0 in June, little-changed from the reading of 54.8 in May. Another economy that has held up well unlike late 2011. Has fared far better than China in terms of how prospects have held up since last year. New Orders slowed a little and backlogs shrank a bit, but compared with other "emerging markets", India has enjoyed a much more stable 2012.

Poland PMI - fell to a 35-month low of 48.0 in June, from May’s 48.9. Very rapid backlog drawdown and a sharp reduction in new business, shows how real the problems are for smaller European countries. Of course, this says a lot about confidence in the immediate term amongst European countries rather than long term prospects.

Turkish PMI - posted 51.4 in June, up from a reading of 50.2 in May. Export new orders decreased for the first time since August 2011. Difficult to surmise anything new from the report or any logical trend in conditions.

Spanish PMI - fell to 41.1 in June, from 42.0 in May. 42 was abysmal in the first place, no prizes for guessing which economies are a drag on Europe at the moment. Reductions in input costs are barely registering at the moment as confidence in new business continues to sharply fall. We still await forward-looking activity to trough, no question that things are harder to stabilise when low confidence is matched with incompatible economic/monetary policy.

Czech PMI - 49.4, up from 47.6, which was a multi-year low. Main partner is Germany, which remains weak, and the overall trend is unquestionably down since early 2011. Another interesting bellwether for "Average Europe" - certainly a little bit better than last month, but in need of more evidence to prove it is bottoming.

Italian PMI - 44.6, down slightly from 44.8 in May. Another lower low, see description of Spain for the same story really. Another lower low for new orders too. Domestic economy is providing very little demand and is yet to show the benefits of lower input costs. Job cuts now catching up with March-present slowdown.

French PMI - posted 45.2, up from May’s three-year low of 44.7. This is encouraging. When confidence is battered, you start to look for signs that significant economies are reversing their downward trends, even if only for a few months. 45.2 is still unpleasant, but any improvement shows a sign of divergence from the market. Unfortunately it is in fairly lonesome company.

UK PMI - 48.6 in June, up from May’s three-year low of 45.9. Joins France in at least not making a lower low in the current trend. Once again we have another economy rapidly eating into backlogs as new orders fall. An overall slowing in demand from abroad finally began to kick-in last month because of overpriced sterling.

German PMI - fell from 45.2 in May to 45.0 in June, its lowest reading for three years. What is most surprising to me is that New Export Orders are significantly in contraction - despite Germany's strong line of products to sell and artificially weak currency. Such is the drop-off in demand from other European countries it seems. The trend is certainly ugly, and how much worse it would be if Germany was selling goods priced in deutsche marks.

Greek PMI - posted 40.1 in June, down from 43.1. The Greek economy no longer can be accurately described as a useful indicator for average conditions in Europe, but we continue to monitor progress for divergence between reality and the market's low expectations.

Overall Eurozone Composite PMI - Unchanged at 45.1, which is a little improved from the Flash estimates. The report reflects story we already know in Europe - weak medium term demand in spite of lower input costs.

US Markit PMI (not ISM) - Down to 52.5, lower than the earlier flash estimate of 52.9 and down from 54.0 in May. Worst reading in 18 months, which Markit suggests is more severe than when ISM was at 50.6 last September (and a US double dip was considered likely). Serves to confirm what we would later find out from the ISM Manufacturing report, outlined later in this article.

HSBC China PMI - 48.4 to 48.2, another lower low in the current trend. Inventories of unsold goods increases at highest rate since 2004. According to Markit's report, "A lack of demand was behind the latest deterioration in operating conditions, with total and foreign new orders falling at accelerated rates in June. New export orders placed at goods producers dropped at the steepest rate in over three years. North America and Europe were both cited as sources of new order book weakness".

Brazil PMI - 48.5, down from 49.3 in May, the index was at an eight-month low and signalled a modest deterioration in business conditions. PMI shows clearly the medium term bearish trend starting in April 2012 to present, so far showing no signs of relief.

THE US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI -- WHAT DOES IT SAY AND WHY DOES IT MATTER?

At Big Macro Picture, you'll hear us talking a lot about the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Original research was conducted into the quality of ISM as a leading indicator by myself (Chief Writer Mark A. Rogers) as part of my economics studies at university, and since then I've followed it closely. I consdier it to be the most important indicator out there for United States, and thus global, economic conditions.


The below image was posted at the excellent Calculated Risk blog which I recommend you check out here: Calculated Risk

It shows how ISM PMI has performed over economic cycles since the 1960s, most notably, "when it peaks" and "when it dips below 50". The last two sustained periods where ISM drifted below 50 were 2007-2009, and 2000-2003. In both cases, the first month in the bull market when ISM dipped below 50, tended to mark the "beginning of the end" for those cycles. While no single indicator is ever infallible, and economic prospects are not always the market's primary concern (note the signals in the 1990s and 1985), we believe the market is currently very interested in the state of the fragile US economy.

Last summer saw sharp declines in US indices when the market began to fear a double dip recession in the United States - the ISM came dangerously close to dipping below 50 but crucially remained above, and the US economy continued to grow. This summer, is it fair to say that the LONG TERM 2009-present bull phase is under threat? We believe that to be the case.

The ISM fell from 53.5 to 49.7, but most startling were the report's other components:


PMI 49.7
New Orders 47.8
Production 51.0
Employment 56.6
Supplier Deliveries 48.9
Inventories 44.0
Prices 37.0
Backlog of Orders 44.5
Exports 47.5
Imports 53.5

New Orders and Production are amongst the most interesting leading components of the report - often having predictive value for future PMI reports. With New Orders dropping from 60.1 to 47.8 on the back of a dramatic drop off in Export Orders, the slowdown overseas has finally found itself on American shores.

While we await confirmation in the coming months' reports, we are now materially concerned with the health of the global economy.

GLOBAL COMPOSITE PMI - A SNAPSHOT OF WORLD ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

An interesting report released yesterday was the JP Morgan/Markit/ISM Global PMI. This factors in the forward-looking growth of every major economy in the world, to produce an impression of worldwide economic conditions.

Global PMI Report 

It neatly summarises the contents of the other PMI reports. As a result of this month's surveys, we now know that the United States (ISM), Japan, China, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Brazil are showing contractionary conditions, for the first time since 2008-2009. India and Russia have yet to follow that trend. Global PMI, Global Output and Global New Orders are all in contractionary territory, and while Europe dragged the global index below 50 briefly in 2011, this time the contraction is felt broadly in each of the world's major economies.

CONCLUSIONS AND THEMES FROM THIS MONTH'S PMI

• Weak Global Demand/New Orders felt in each of the world's major economies, including United States for the first time since the 2009-present LONG TERM bull phase began. We cannot yet conclude that this will mark the end of this current bull phase, as the market might brush aside the growth concerns and the indicators may pick up again before the impact is felt in company earnings. However, this is the most concerned we have been for the health of the 2009-present bull phase since the recovery began.
  
• Dramatic Reduction in Input Costs almost a unanimous feature in each of the PMI reports, courtesy of reductions in oil and industrial metal prices. This comes with the usual conundrum for investors in inflation-sensitive securities. A sign of real lack of inflationary pressure on one hand, but on the other hand, a signal to central banks that they can afford to be looser with monetary policy - thus creating future inflation.
• ... but it Hasn't Eased Pressures on Producers courtesy of an outright lack of demand. We have felt, and still feel, that eventually lower input costs will act as an automatic stabiliser for the global economy -- which was hurt earlier in the year by artificially high oil prices. The story in Germany is interesting - a major global producer of goods, enjoying low input prices and a currency that flatters exporters - still shows terrible New Export Orders due to the weakness in the rest of Europe. A worrying sign.
• One or Two Bright Spots...? Might be considered as India and Russia (the only remaining major economies with expansionary PMIs), even though Russia's PMI did fall this month, and is an economy likely to suffer from lower oil prices in spite of funds set up to buffer their economy from such events. In terms of MEDIUM TERM analysis, we can also be encouraged that France and the UK did not make lower lows in the current trend for PMI -- although the majority of the reports, as you can see above, did exactly that.

At Big Macro Picture, we are not fans of dramatic, sensationalist arm-waving over global economic growth. We have been bullish on the LONG TERM timeframe since 2009, when the above data showed clear signs of improving into expansionary territory and the market was still in decline. Naturally, as this data now moves from expansion towards contraction, we have equal reason to be cautious on the LONG TERM cycle, as well as the MEDIUM TERM bearish cycle that began in March/April.




Our strategy is to use this current SHORT TERM bullish run (June onwards) to position and protect our LONG TERM and MEDIUM TERM portfolios from the risks of further declines in 2012. We will watch for signs of that trend reversing, noting that failure to make new higher highs in 2012 would be particularly worrisome for this present cycle.

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